In a rare act of courtesy, I decided to revive my underutilized blog for my 2016 MLB predictions and spare my many victims of the Facebook newsfeed pollution I create every year just before Opening Day. If you're reading this, you're likely a friend that I share some sort of bond with through baseball, and sadly many of our mutual friends don't share the same passion for this authentic, unifying, and eloquent expression of American tradition. If you think about it though, it's probably best we keep those folks out. Because let's be honest, if you don't like baseball, you probably like communism. That said, because I've found the kindness in my heart to keep my thoughts off of Facebook, you can expect this to be a long piece. Don't be mad though. I wasn't the glutton for punishment who subjected himself to this, and chances are if you've read this far, this isn't the first time you've subjected yourself to one of Gerald's long-winded rants. At the most, I hope this generates some pretty solid hardball talk among friends, and in the process arms you with a couple of knowledge bombs to drop on that one self-proclaimed baseball expert that we all know in our personal lives---absolutely no irony in that statement as I write this. And let's face it, deep-rooted baseball fandom has unfortunately become a cult following. How we've reached that point is incomprehensible, but we members need to do all we can to stick together. At the very least, I'm hoping this gets "bad movie treatment." You know...you're 15 minutes in, you know it sucks, but you aren't getting those 15 minutes back so you might as well watch the whole damn thing just to see what happens. Anyway, here are my 2016 MLB predictions, awards and 16 thoughts for 2016.
Read'em and rip'em...
Read'em and rip'em...
AL/NL
East: Blue Jays/Mets
Central: Royals/Cubs
West: Rangers/Diamondbacks
Wild Cards: Astros/Indians, Pirates/Nationals
ALCS: Rangers over Astros
NLCS: Cubs over Diamondbacks
NLCS: Cubs over Diamondbacks
WS: Cubs over Rangers
· Were the Rangers a homer pick to make the WS?
You could argue that, but the AL is wide open this year and I’m buying their
chances. People are sleeping on the Ian Desmond signing, something I think
benefits the team for at least three separate reasons. Additionally, I think Martin Perez
has a bounce back year. So after Darvish returns, 1-4 in the rotation is going
to be solid. That said, this year sucks for any fan of an AL team that makes a
run to the WS because it’s impossible to be disappointed if the Cubs win. I don’t
care about the postseason heartbreak I’ve endured as a Ranger fan. There are
just some things in this world that need to happen, and Steve Bartman being
able to show his face at Wrigley Field and be forgiven by an entire fan base is one of them---go watch that replay, every moron sitting around Bartman, with the exception of one, should name their kids after him because they reached for that ball too. I mean if there was one reason to root against the Cubs, it would be for how that incident played out among the fans, but we won't go there. Would a third WS loss in the
last six years make the Rangers the “Buffalo Bills of Baseball”? No, and stop
acting like the Bills were losers. Ask a Browns fan if he’d have rather lived through
four straight Super Bowl losses instead of draft bust after draft bust and see what he says. The
Cubs are the best team in baseball, and are going to have this core for at least another five years. Believe the hype, and just accept the fact
that they deserve this more than your team.
2016 Awards...
· Were the Rangers a homer pick to make the WS?
You could argue that, but the AL is wide open this year and I’m buying their
chances. People are sleeping on the Ian Desmond signing, something I think
benefits the team for at least three separate reasons. Additionally, I think Martin Perez
has a bounce back year. So after Darvish returns, 1-4 in the rotation is going
to be solid. That said, this year sucks for any fan of an AL team that makes a
run to the WS because it’s impossible to be disappointed if the Cubs win. I don’t
care about the postseason heartbreak I’ve endured as a Ranger fan. There are
just some things in this world that need to happen, and Steve Bartman being
able to show his face at Wrigley Field and be forgiven by an entire fan base is one of them---go watch that replay, every moron sitting around Bartman, with the exception of one, should name their kids after him because they reached for that ball too. I mean if there was one reason to root against the Cubs, it would be for how that incident played out among the fans, but we won't go there. Would a third WS loss in the
last six years make the Rangers the “Buffalo Bills of Baseball”? No, and stop
acting like the Bills were losers. Ask a Browns fan if he’d have rather lived through
four straight Super Bowl losses instead of draft bust after draft bust and see what he says. The
Cubs are the best team in baseball, and are going to have this core for at least another five years. Believe the hype, and just accept the fact
that they deserve this more than your team. 2016 Awards...
MVP: Mike Trout/Paul Goldschmidt
· Can't you just see it now? Trout leading or in the top three of every major category and metric in the AL. Then in walks this 21 year old stud shortstop on a potential pennant winning team in the same division, only to steal the award with comparable, but not better numbers? Stop the madness. Trout is the best player in the AL, and quite possibly the entire game. The craziest thing about him finishing 2nd in the MVP race in two of the last three years is that the year he actually won it (2014) was his worst statistical year of the three. Let that sink in...
· Goldschmidt will approach ’09-’10 Pujols
numbers. At least, that’s what I’m hoping for since I took him #2 overall in
fantasy over Trout. But seriously, he's the total package and I think he gets very close. Give me Rizzo as my dark horse, as he's looking primed to make that jump also. And for the love of all things holy, can we please bring those beautiful Arizona pinstripe vests back full-time, along with the Marlins teals? Why they were killed in the first place makes no sense considering they were both donned during both franchise's glory years. Besides, I'm a 90's kid, I grew up with them.
Cy Young: Chris Sale/Gerrit Cole
· I picked “Filthy Buck Fifty” when he was a less popular candidate last year---Yes, I made that
up for Sale. No, I will not call him “The Condor.”---and I will
maintain that he should have won the award over Keuchel based on
metrics. He had a much higher K/9, lower BB/9, a much higher opponent BABIP,
and a +0.68 ERA-FIP differential to Keuchel’s -0.43. Plus, I want to see him
win one before his arm blows up as many have projected could happen any day
now. As stated in the nickname, dude is filthy. But you know who else is just as filthy? Chris Archer. Give me Archer and Carlos Carrasco as the other two who make it a hotly contested race through September.
·
It would be easy to take Kershaw/Scherzer/Harvey/Grienke/deGrom/,
so I’m taking Cole as a dark horse despite a significantly lower K/9 than the field. This is a big-time homer pick as I've owned him in fantasy for three straight years, but he was in the race all the way through August last year. The quintessential anti-Sale with the near flawless mechanics and frame built to last, he's currently in a financial dispute with his club and out to prove his worth. Plus, I love the philosophy in Pittsburgh: Create wins by saving runs through pitch framing, up your two-seam fastball usage to induce ground balls, and constantly shift your defense within the same count to spots where you're anticipating said ground balls. You thought 'Moneyball' changed the game? What the Pirates do through real engineering makes that look like child's play.
Rookie of The Year: Aaron Judge/Trevor Story
· This is a long shot, as Judge may not get the call up anytime soon after struggling this spring. Everyone is taking Buxton/Berrios. While I want to show the Twins some love, my thinking is, who wouldn’t want to see a dude who’s basically the size of LeBron play the outfield and swat bombs out of that wiffle ball park known as Yankee Stadium? The only thing I’d like seeing more than that? Lew Brinson, "boy"…
· If he stays healthy, my money is on Steven Matz to win it, but Matz and his Mets already get enough love, so let's look at shortstop. Everyone is picking Seager/Turner, so give me Trevor Story. The glaring difference among the group that I think people are overlooking is that Story plays in Coors Field on a rebuilding team. Not to mention, he's projected to hit in the two-hole between Blackmon and CarGo. Regardless of who wins, I just hope we’re entering another Golden Age of shortstops because that’s something the game desperately needs.
· Fernandez is Pedro 2.0. Nuff said...
My 16 thoughts heading into 2016…
2. Staying in the East, I’m not in love with the Jays’ rotation, but it will be just enough behind a very potent lineup. No Wild Cards will come out of this division, as these five will eat each other alive. The O’s are confusing, but the Rays are an interesting sleeper that could make a run on young defensive ability---seriously, Kiermaier is in a class of his own, and everyone else is simply 1a--- run manufacturing, and the best rotation in the division headed by Chris Archer, the right-handed version of Sale.
3. I said the wheels would come off for Detroit last year, and they did. But much like last year’s Jays, 1-5 in their lineup is a real threat. A bounceback year from Verlander could get them back to the postseason, but I’ll have to see it to believe it.
4. I see the Indians as a poor man’s version of last year’s Mets. They’re viewed as the biggest losers of the offseason for not making any significant moves to improve offensively, and rightfully so. They won’t make the WS and they’ll struggle to score runs, but Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar are as good as it gets, especially in the AL, and what appears to be a wide open Central division.
5. I looked foolish for picking the Royals to miss the postseason last year, and as tempting as it is to do it again, I’m taking them for the same reasons I’m not taking the Nationals (see #11).
6. Not much separates the Astros and Rangers, but I’m giving a very slight edge to Texas based on depth, their bullpen---which Buster Olney agreed with when he read my tweet on the BBTN podcast regarding what sets these teams apart from each other, so no, I'm not a blind homer---and the fact that history says when teams make as big a jump as Houston did last year, they usually take a step back. That said, it should be a small step back, as both teams are poised to make a deep run. I'm looking forward to this potentially being the best two team race in MLB.
7. This year’s postseason will not feature Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw, and as a fan of the game, that upsets me…
8. The Mariners have made some subtle moves that make them tough for me to sleep on, but I think they’re still a year away.
9. The Diamondbacks were 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and led all of MLB with 69 Defensive Runs Saved in 2015 (next closest team, KC with 56). Add Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller and a healthy Pat Corbin, you better believe I’m buying this team. They aren't as deep as the Cubs, but expect them to be buyers at the deadline.
10. The Mets should build an early lead on the Nationals, and I expect them to maintain it. After facing KC to open the season, they get the Phillies, Braves, Reds and Padres. Their lineup is improved from last year, and rounding off an already dominant rotation with ROY candidate Steven Matz and a healthy Zack Wheeler set to return in July, this team could run away with the “NL Least.”
11. I swore last year I’d never pick the Nationals to win anything again, no matter how enticing, and I’m sticking to my word… sort of. They get a WC spot only by virtue of playing in the worst division in all of baseball. I will say though, I am a fan of the Dusty Baker hire.
12. Looking at the NL West, with an injury riddled spring, it’s looking like the biggest payroll in baseball would be doing themselves a favor by investing in some comfortable new Lay-Z-Boys because that’s likely where they’ll be watching the postseason from. Sorry, Magic…
As for the Giants, the buck stops here with the even year nonsense.
[Insert Hunter Pence Joke Here]
13. Are you like me, having trouble finding work? Let's make a road trip out of it and tryout for the Phillies, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, and Padres. My twice surgically repaired shoulder and the litany of injuries I've sustained since would make any one of these teams a lock to land the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft.
14. Seamheads beware when picking the Cardinals on pedigree. The 2015 Cardinals are one of 12 teams in the Wild Card Era to allow 580 runs or fewer (528) in a single season. Each of the 11 teams before them saw an average increase in runs allowed the following year by 114, with only one team being able to stay under 600.
15. The Pirates took a step back in the offseason, but I just can’t bring myself to pick against them. Starling Marte might be the single most underrated player in baseball, Cutch is Cutch, Gerrit Cole is a workhorse, and Ray Searage is a pitching whisperer currently working his magic on Juan Nicasio. If you haven’t read ‘Big Data Baseball’, do yourself a favor and pick up a copy… like, today. You can thank me later.
16. The Curse of the Billy Goat will end and Steve Bartman will be vindicated in 2016. The Cubs are deep, and when I say deep, I mean they can plug an impact player in at almost any spot if injuries arise. I love the Heyward signing, as he's grossly underrated when you consider his defensive ability and age. And as much as it pains me to say it, the x-factor that will determine the Cubs postseason success is... just who everybody thought, John Lackey. All of their bullpen question marks can be fixed before the deadline, and they have the farm system to make it happen.
Rookie of The Year: Aaron Judge/Trevor Story
· This is a long shot, as Judge may not get the call up anytime soon after struggling this spring. Everyone is taking Buxton/Berrios. While I want to show the Twins some love, my thinking is, who wouldn’t want to see a dude who’s basically the size of LeBron play the outfield and swat bombs out of that wiffle ball park known as Yankee Stadium? The only thing I’d like seeing more than that? Lew Brinson, "boy"…
· If he stays healthy, my money is on Steven Matz to win it, but Matz and his Mets already get enough love, so let's look at shortstop. Everyone is picking Seager/Turner, so give me Trevor Story. The glaring difference among the group that I think people are overlooking is that Story plays in Coors Field on a rebuilding team. Not to mention, he's projected to hit in the two-hole between Blackmon and CarGo. Regardless of who wins, I just hope we’re entering another Golden Age of shortstops because that’s something the game desperately needs.
Comeback Player of the Year: Yu Darvish/Jose Fernandez
·
Need this and then some for my Rangers projection to hold
true.· Fernandez is Pedro 2.0. Nuff said...
My 16 thoughts heading into 2016…
2. Staying in the East, I’m not in love with the Jays’ rotation, but it will be just enough behind a very potent lineup. No Wild Cards will come out of this division, as these five will eat each other alive. The O’s are confusing, but the Rays are an interesting sleeper that could make a run on young defensive ability---seriously, Kiermaier is in a class of his own, and everyone else is simply 1a--- run manufacturing, and the best rotation in the division headed by Chris Archer, the right-handed version of Sale.
3. I said the wheels would come off for Detroit last year, and they did. But much like last year’s Jays, 1-5 in their lineup is a real threat. A bounceback year from Verlander could get them back to the postseason, but I’ll have to see it to believe it.
4. I see the Indians as a poor man’s version of last year’s Mets. They’re viewed as the biggest losers of the offseason for not making any significant moves to improve offensively, and rightfully so. They won’t make the WS and they’ll struggle to score runs, but Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar are as good as it gets, especially in the AL, and what appears to be a wide open Central division.
5. I looked foolish for picking the Royals to miss the postseason last year, and as tempting as it is to do it again, I’m taking them for the same reasons I’m not taking the Nationals (see #11).
6. Not much separates the Astros and Rangers, but I’m giving a very slight edge to Texas based on depth, their bullpen---which Buster Olney agreed with when he read my tweet on the BBTN podcast regarding what sets these teams apart from each other, so no, I'm not a blind homer---and the fact that history says when teams make as big a jump as Houston did last year, they usually take a step back. That said, it should be a small step back, as both teams are poised to make a deep run. I'm looking forward to this potentially being the best two team race in MLB.
7. This year’s postseason will not feature Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw, and as a fan of the game, that upsets me…
8. The Mariners have made some subtle moves that make them tough for me to sleep on, but I think they’re still a year away.
9. The Diamondbacks were 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and led all of MLB with 69 Defensive Runs Saved in 2015 (next closest team, KC with 56). Add Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller and a healthy Pat Corbin, you better believe I’m buying this team. They aren't as deep as the Cubs, but expect them to be buyers at the deadline.
10. The Mets should build an early lead on the Nationals, and I expect them to maintain it. After facing KC to open the season, they get the Phillies, Braves, Reds and Padres. Their lineup is improved from last year, and rounding off an already dominant rotation with ROY candidate Steven Matz and a healthy Zack Wheeler set to return in July, this team could run away with the “NL Least.”
11. I swore last year I’d never pick the Nationals to win anything again, no matter how enticing, and I’m sticking to my word… sort of. They get a WC spot only by virtue of playing in the worst division in all of baseball. I will say though, I am a fan of the Dusty Baker hire.
12. Looking at the NL West, with an injury riddled spring, it’s looking like the biggest payroll in baseball would be doing themselves a favor by investing in some comfortable new Lay-Z-Boys because that’s likely where they’ll be watching the postseason from. Sorry, Magic…
As for the Giants, the buck stops here with the even year nonsense.
[Insert Hunter Pence Joke Here]
13. Are you like me, having trouble finding work? Let's make a road trip out of it and tryout for the Phillies, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, and Padres. My twice surgically repaired shoulder and the litany of injuries I've sustained since would make any one of these teams a lock to land the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft.
14. Seamheads beware when picking the Cardinals on pedigree. The 2015 Cardinals are one of 12 teams in the Wild Card Era to allow 580 runs or fewer (528) in a single season. Each of the 11 teams before them saw an average increase in runs allowed the following year by 114, with only one team being able to stay under 600.
15. The Pirates took a step back in the offseason, but I just can’t bring myself to pick against them. Starling Marte might be the single most underrated player in baseball, Cutch is Cutch, Gerrit Cole is a workhorse, and Ray Searage is a pitching whisperer currently working his magic on Juan Nicasio. If you haven’t read ‘Big Data Baseball’, do yourself a favor and pick up a copy… like, today. You can thank me later.
16. The Curse of the Billy Goat will end and Steve Bartman will be vindicated in 2016. The Cubs are deep, and when I say deep, I mean they can plug an impact player in at almost any spot if injuries arise. I love the Heyward signing, as he's grossly underrated when you consider his defensive ability and age. And as much as it pains me to say it, the x-factor that will determine the Cubs postseason success is... just who everybody thought, John Lackey. All of their bullpen question marks can be fixed before the deadline, and they have the farm system to make it happen.
Great read, Jerald!
ReplyDeleteHere are my picks:
AL/NL
East: Jays/Mets
Central: Royals/Cubs
West: Rangers/Diamondbacks
Wild Cards: Astros/Tigers, Pirates/Giants
ALCS: Rangers over Astros
NLCS: Cubs lose to Diamondbacks
WS: Dbacks lose to the Rangers
One thing I wish you would have touched on, is how the nature of the game is changing with these young personalities coming up? Bryce Harper has had some strong opinions that are mirrored with some douchebags up in Toronto. I personally do not agree with some of their thoughts on how the game should be played..and I'm hoping to see Jose look like Delino did after he got hit in the mouth.
The Dbacks just had some major bad luck with AJ's elbow..hopefully he comes back this year. I think that ACE they picked up will work out great for them.
Well, hopefully we'll see Cole and Yu in October throwing heat! Thanks again for the read.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteHere are my thoughts on Harper, and an entire generation of pussies...
Deletehttp://www.infowars.com/7-harsh-realities-of-life-millennials-need-to-understand/